Overcoming bias in sports betting

Everywhere you look, there’s a ton of information available about sports betting. From podcasts to television, and from the internet to word of mouth, there’s someone or something to affect decision-making when it comes to placing sports wagers. Number one on that list can sometimes be biases formed in the mind of sports bettors. Keep on reading to discover the types of biases at play in sports betting and how to overcome them.

What is bias in sports betting?

Bias in sports betting means to show an inclination for or against a specific outcome based on an unbalanced, incorrect or simply false premise.

As everyone bets to win, a classic case of bias in sports betting is optimism bias. This type of bias involves bettors overestimating their chances of winning a wager. As a result, optimism bias in sports betting, such as wagering on one’s favourite NHL team or being emotionally invested in a particular Tennis player, can lead punters to place illogical bets.

Leveraging bias such as optimism bias, punters tend to zone in on only the positive possibilities, while downplaying the potential negative outcomes. But bias in sports betting isn’t just about leaning into optimism. That’s because there are several different biases at play when it comes to wagering on sports.

Types of bias in sports betting

By acknowledging the many types of biases involved in sports betting, punters can take steps in avoiding them. That way, they can make smarter decisions based on objective analysis, while improving their chances of success.

Some of the most common biases in sports wagering include:

Confirmation bias - encourages bettors to selectively seek information that supports their existing beliefs while overlooking contrary evidence. An example of this would be to believe that Kai Havertz will score against Bournemouth, as he has in two previous Premier League games, despite not scoring in his last 9 appearances.
Gambler’s fallacy - a gambler’s fallacy is a bias that is based on the false belief that past events can influence those in the future. For instance, believing that the Toronto Raptors will lose their next NBA game after an 11-game winning streak just because they’re due to lose at some point. While it’s true that the Raptors will eventually lose, it will likely be because they come up against superior opposition rather than because it’s bound to happen.
Recency bias - in sports betting, recency bias is to give more weight to recent events when making future wagers. Recency bias can cause punters to overvalue the performance of a team or player in their most recent game while ignoring longer-term historical data. For example, placing more emphasis on the Chicago Blackhawks’ last few NHL wins despite their inconsistency during the season.
Outcome bias - sometimes, a punter may win a bet that was based on a flawed premise, such as gambler’s fallacy or recency bias. Outcome bias means evaluating decisions based on the outcome rather than the logic behind the decision itself. For example, successfully picking underdogs Bologna to beat favourites Bayern Munich in a Champions League game after three successive losses in the competition. Outcome bias can, therefore, lead to a false sense of confidence for future bets. On the flip side, if a punter’s decision results in losing a bet, they may incorrectly surmise that the decision was poor, even if it was based on reasonable judgment.
Anchoring bias - as the name suggests, this type of bias involves “anchoring down” to an initial belief, sometimes to the detriment of an ongoing wager. Say, for instance, a punter has bet the Over on the San Francisco 49ers to win 11.5 NFL games. Now imagine that the 49ers start the season 0-3, and the punter is offered a Cash Out option by their sportsbook. Anchoring bias would be sticking to their initial bet, i.e., declining the option, and not adjusting their strategy. This could lead to missed opportunities and lower returns.

How to overcome bias in sports wagering

The mind is a weird, wonderful and complex organ. That’s because the mind that produces logical reasoning is the same one that comes up with nonsensical arguments. When it comes to sports betting, strategy should be at the forefront of every punter’s thoughts.

Whether you’re betting on the underdog or using a Cash-Out betting feature, there needs to be some method to counter the biases and unpredictable nature of sports betting.

That’s because every type of sports bias has the potential to cloud judgement and human nature, which can affect a bettor’s chances of success.

Even better, concepts such as expected value, expected goals and the closing line in sports betting in conjunction with solid analysis can take punters beyond short-sighted bets such as wagering on the most favourable odds or trusting “gut feelings”.