A guide to steam betting

If you’re wondering what steam has to do with betting, you might not be alone. Steam betting, to give it its proper name, is an integral part of sports wagering that’s been around for ages. Continue reading to discover what steam betting means, including its origins, how punters can benefit from it and more.

What is steam betting?

In sports betting, steaming refers to sudden, drastic line movements across all sportsbooks for a particular game. Steaming is usually caused by coordinated moves by professional sports bettors known as “sharps” or as a result of new, key information. Steam betting is therefore any wagers placed as a result of these drastic moneyline shifts.

The term steam betting comes from water boiling in an old fashioned kettle. When water reaches its peak boiling point in the kettle, steam is released and the kettle lets out a whistling noise. In sports betting, odds that are “steaming” are odds that have reached a new betting line high, i.e., a peaking boiling point, as a result of new information.

Consider the opening game of the Copa America between Argentina and Canada. Predictably, Soccer World Cup winners Argentina open as favourites at odds of 1.33 (-300) against the lowly-ranked Canadians who are listed at odds of 11.0 (+1,000) for the win.

However, large early bets on the Canadians see their odds shrink to around 2.86 (+186) across most sportsbooks. Now Canada has an implied probability of 35% up from just above 9% initially. Unless the Canadians have become a football powerhouse overnight, something must have caused this somewhat seismic odds fluctuation.

What causes odds to steam?

When it comes to odds, sportsbooks only tend to react and change theirs under certain situations. One of these situations is steaming which is caused by either new information, as the result of a planned steam move by a sharp or sometimes by complete accident.

First, let’s look at new information. In an extreme case, let’s say that before the aforementioned Argentina versus Canada match-up, there’s a food poisoning outbreak in the Argentine camp.

The mysterious bug rules out several important players such as Lionel Messi, Lautaro Martinez and goalkeeper Emiliano Martinez from the game. Now all of a sudden, Canada’s odds for the win have become better and will start to steam.

That because the more uncertainty surrounding an outcome such as an Argentina victory, the less confidence bettors or sportsbooks will have in the result.

Next, let’s consider a steam move. Sometimes, a sharp or two will create steam moves, i.e., bet large on one outcome, simply to cause the line to move in order to place online sports bets on the newly-created line.

Finally, sometimes steam gets created by chance. This is usually because some big-hitting anonymous punter or celebrities like musician Drake and former Boxing champion Floyd Mayweather Jr decided to bet heavily on one outcome.

While the anonymous sports bettor can remain in the shadows, the aforementioned celebrities usually post their betting slips on social media. As a result, the odds on the celebrities’ picks could begin to steam up as others take notice and decide to get in on the action.

Case in point, in July 2022 at UFC 296, Drake wagered around $2.3 million on both Paddy Pimblett and Molly McCann winning their respective fights. After the pair won, Drake received a payout of over $3.7 million.

Chasing steam

Whatever the cause of moneyline movements and steaming odds, there are some recreational punters who base many of their betting strategies around them. Monitoring and placing bets based on moneyline movements and steaming odds is known as chasing steam.

In the example above, recreational bettors may view a potential moneyline movement on either Pimblett or McCann, or the direction of sharp money, as an indicator to what certain sharps could be thinking or some insider information they may have received.

Some eagle-eyed punters could use this to their advantage after that fact. That’s because by checking the shifts in odds against the actual outcomes, they might be able to discover value bets in the future by gaining an insight into what the sharps are looking for in a potential bet.

Although noticing moneylines that steam should be part of any sound betting plan, they shouldn’t be considered as the gospel truth. Again, there’s no substitute for research and employing strategies such as smarter bets on underdogs or extracting expected value (EV) bets for well thoughtout wagers.

The downsides of chasing steam

While chasing steam can prove a winning strategy for a while, it could lead punters landing in hot water with major sportsbooks. That’s because if the bookies suspect that a bettor’s wagers are steam-chasing moves, it could lead to limits on account or even suspensions.

That’s why it’s always best practice to read the terms and conditions to get to grips with your sportsbook’s rules.

Another pitfall of chasing steam is that sometimes the steam isn’t real.

For every big bet that hits for sharps or celebrity punters, there is a pile of their other wagers that don’t win. Therefore, over reliance on chasing steam isn’t a great long-term strategy.

Instead, it’s better to understand why a line has moved, such as due to team selection, injury news, etc, as opposed to just chasing steam blindly. For example, a moneyline may move with sportsbooks in England whenever the national team plays in a World Cup or the Euros in Soccer.

Rather than using sound tactical analysis to back England, many punters might just be acting patriotic, or worse, in hope that their country wins. The point is, follow your instincts, not the crowd.