How to bet on underdogs

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Everyone loves an underdog. From David taking on Goliath to Rocky Balboa battling Ivan Drago, the whole world almost always seems to root for the so-called “lovable loser”. That long list of underdog admirers includes both sports bettors and sportsbooks. Read on to discover what the term underdog means, its origin and how to bet on potential underdogs in sports.

What does underdog mean?

An underdog is a competitor thought to have the least or little chance of winning a competition or contest. That could range from candidates in an election to participants in the Eurovision Song Contest. In sports betting parlance, underdogs are the team or player with low or the lowest odds and probability of winning, which translates to having the highest betting odds. Often colloquially referred to as just “dogs”, underdogs are an important component of the sports betting industry.

The origin of the underdog

Unfortunately, the origin of the word isn’t a friendly one. That’s because an underdog is derived from the language of dogfights in the late 19th century, where the winning dog was proclaimed the “top dog” and the losing dog was coined the “underdog”.

Luckily, the term has morphed into its new meaning which is strongly associated with sports. For sports bettors like Granny, underdogs represent more than just a feel-good story. That’s because underdogs offer larger odds and higher potential payouts, at a reduced financial risk. Therefore backing an underdog is a potential win-win-win situation.

Underdog betting strategies

Loving an underdog shouldn’t be the reason you place bets on them. In fact, most bettors both casual and professional will advise you avoid emotional betting decisions at all costs. Instead, there are some telltale signs, factors and patterns you can look for to make more-informed wagers. These factors include:

Having supernatural powers

Seriously, if you can look into the future then you can probably skip the rest of this article. That’s because you’re definitely on to a winner by knowing beforehand the next time that a lowly-ranked team like Leicester City at 5001.0 (+500,000) odds wins the Premier League.

Other than that, you’d need the most luck of all time to unearth these kinds of underdogs. Miracles do happen and will happen again. The question is, will you be fortunate enough to see them coming?

Finding miscast underdogs

Sometimes an underdog isn’t really an underdog at all. Remember Goran Ivanisevic winning Wimbledon in 2001. His pre-tournament odds of 151.0 (+15,000) might have suggested that he was an underdog, but Ivansevic was once near the very top of his sports.

But why was Ivanisevic miscast as an underdog? A winner of 22 ATP Tour singles titles, Ivanisevic was once ranked the second best Tennis player in the world. What’s more, Ivansevic had been a runner-up at Wimbledon in 1992, 1994 and 1998.

But by the summer of 2001, Ivanisevic was ranked the world No. 125 and only “qualified” for the tournament as a wildcard. So as his form and rankings dipped, so did his chances of winning Grand Slam tournaments like Wimbledon. Predictably, his odds with sportsbooks followed suit. Yes Ivanisevic was an underdog, but more accurately, he was a miscast underdog.

Whether it’s a sleeping giant or a diamond in the rough, finding a miscast underdog can be the key to smarter betting.

Discovering higher value bets

The very core of wagering on underdogs lies in finding value bets. If you believe a team is being undervalued by sportsbooks, you might have found a valuable underdog.

Think about a team like Real Madrid playing against Valencia in La Liga without Toni Kroos. Although he might not be one of the team’s star players nowadays, you believe his absence will have a detrimental effect on Madrid’s performance.

Let’s imagine that your final conclusion tells you that Valencia should be favourites instead of Real Madrid. If you trust your analysis, then betting on “your” favourites Valencia at higher and better value odds is a great way of wagering on underdogs.

Checking the weather regularly

For those who love betting primarily on indoor sports like the NHL and NBA, look away now. However, for most other sports like the NFL, checking the weather forecast should be an hourly ritual if you want to bet on underdogs.

That’s because inclement weather such as heavy rainfall can quickly reduce one team’s slick, effective passing offense into sludge. All of a sudden, throwing and catching the ball becomes problematic and they might have to run the ball instead. This turn of weather can sometimes quickly transform favourites into underdogs and vice versa.

Even better, if you can discover a change of weather before the sportsbooks, you could beat the closing line in sports betting.

That way, you can extract some positive expected value from your sports wagers.

Studying the form and situation book

Success in sports is always great but it can sometimes be confusing for sportsbooks. Consider teams that have already won a league title with games to spare or those that have cemented their playoff or group seeding.

With “nothing to play for” human nature could kick in and favoured teams might start performing below par or resting their main core players. As a knock on effect, the underdogs might find themselves with a better chance of winning than originally thought.

That’s where you could take advantage. It’s always worth checking out what’s at stake for each team or player involved before betting.

Considering home comforts

Some underdogs are often transformed when they’ve at home.

Call it a home field or home court advantage, in sports, it’s a real factor. From raucous fans to intimate arenas, there’s always some type of boost to playing in front of your own crowd.

For example, the Denver Nuggets in the NBA and the Denver Broncos in the NFL have one famous home advantage in common.

That’s because the high altitude of Denver, Colorado makes it difficult for visiting teams not used to these conditions.The high altitude has been known to cause athletes to develop rapid fatigue or breathlessness during games. So despite what the form book says about Denver’s teams, they’re always in with a chance of upsetting the odds at home. So while it’s not a sure-fire betting strategy, including home advantage in your pre-match analysis is definitely worth doing.